2010 Draft Wrap - Rookies To Watch

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hacheman@therx.com
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Draft Wrap: Rookie Winners
Draft weekend was quite eventful for Detroit. While sad-sack former Lions GM Matt Millen was apologizing for calling Ron Jaworski a "Polack," current GM Martin Mayhew was putting the finishing touches on the best offseason in the league. After over a decade as the league's laughingstock, the Leos are slowly but surely putting together a legit NFL roster behind Mayhew and coach Jim Schwartz.

Mayhew's pre-draft haul included a veteran pass rusher familiar with Schwartz's system (Kyle Vanden Bosch), a three technique tackle franchise-tagged by the Packers two years ago (Corey Williams), a true second receiver that can play inside and out (Nate Burleson), one of the top dozen pass-catching tight ends in the NFL (Tony Scheffler), and a major upgrade at left guard (Rob Sims) in addition to several key role players (Shaun Hill, Chris Houston, Dante Wesley).

To that mix the Lions have now added the best player in the draft (Ndamukong Suh), arguably the most explosive runner available (Jahvid Best), and a physical corner that could step right into the starting lineup (Ameri Spievey). It's not only likely but probable that Schwartz's squad will boast a combined 12 new starters in Week 1 – almost every one an upgrade on last year's starter.

Throw in the return to health of key players such as Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Stephen Peterman, and Mayhew is my early prediction for 2010 Executive of the Year. With that said, let's lead off the list of this draft's fantasy winners with one of those Lions.

Jahvid Best, Lions – You may have heard Best's draft story by now. When team president Tom Lewand took his sweet time finalizing the trade to move up to No. 30 overall, Schwartz contemplated taking the phone out of his hand and beating him over the head with it. But you probably have not heard this one yet: Schwartz also explained that he tunes into Youtube videos of Best as a substitute for online porn.

Best does not come without warts. He underwent hip, elbow, and shoulder injuries at Cal. After picking up Heisman steam late last season, he missed the final four games with a concussion and a back injury. What's important for the 2010 fantasy season, though, is that Best is healthy after nearly six months of rest.

So why does Best top this list? Well, this isn't your older brother's Lions. With the changes on offense, Best actually enters a situation tailor made for fantasy success. A homerun hitter in the vain of Chris Johnson, Best is also a excellent receiver out of the backfield. If teams insist on double- and triple-teaming Calvin Johnson, Best will make them pick their poison. Like Percy Harvin in Minnesota, his 4.35 speed will play perfectly on Ford Field's turf.

What about playing time? Kevin Smith is unlikely to be ready for Week 1 after a late-season ACL injury, and he won't be the same back until months after his return. Maurice Morris is on the periphery as well, but Lions coaches will have a hard time pulling Best off the field once they see what he brings to the offense. The Lions starting running back won't be drafted early in fantasy leagues, so Best presents the chance for a mid-round steal this year.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Mathews will top most rookie lists, and it's easy to see why. GM A.J. Smith aggressively moved up to No. 12 to fix his league-worst running game by drafting the NFL-ready tackle breaker. Mathews will step right into LaDainian Tomlinson's 2009 role, garnering all of the early-down work including the majority of goal-line carries. While his upside is limited by Darren Sproles' presence on passing downs, the Bolts' ultra-effective aerial attack will help open holes and create scoring opportunities.

Tomlinson made headlines when he threw his offensive linemen and head coach under bus upon departing San Diego, blaming them for his poor numbers last season. More likely, the opposite is true. Mathews simply has "a gear that Tomlinson lost" two years ago. The rookie could go off the fantasy boards as early as round three this summer.

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Dez Bryant, Cowboys – The draft's best offensive player fell to the perfect landing spot because he was tardy a couple of times at Oklahoma State and had dinner with Deion Sanders. Haunted by the ghost of Randy Moss past, Jerry Jones traded up for a playmaking receiver sure to make Dallas fans forget the Roy Williams fiasco.

The immediate post-draft party line is that Williams' roster spot is safe, and Bryant will have to severely outplay him for the starting job. The explosive rookie is already a better player, so that shouldn't be a tremendous hurdle. It's also possible that Williams won't even make it to training camp in a Cowboys uniform. In which case, Bryant will see his fantasy draft stock rise considerably in perhaps the league's most dynamic offense.

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos – The NFL's new lightning rod for criticism, Josh McDaniels bypassed Bryant to select Georgia Tech game-breaker Thomas at No. 22 overall. McDaniels was poised to enter the season with talent-challenged Jabar Gaffney and 2009 fantasy back-breaker Eddie Royal as his starting receiver after trading problem child Brandon Marshall. Thomas, now 90 percent recovered from February foot surgery, has the size (6'3", 230), 4.4 speed, and downfield playmaking ability to emerge as the Broncos' most dangerous receiver by October.

Arrelious Benn / Mike Williams, Bucs – Welcome to the land of opportunity, boys. The Bucs entered the draft with Reggie Brown, Maurice Stovall, and Sammie Stroughter atop the receiver depth chart, three receivers that wouldn't see the field for most teams. Second-rounder Benn (Illinois) is already penciled into the starting lineup, and fourth-rounder Williams (Syracuse) may join him by the end of training camp . Though Benn may have the best chance of any rookie wideout to lead his team in receptions, he'll have to hold off Williams to do so. The latter was considered a first-round talent before a string of off-the-field woes.

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Bill Belichick's offense doesn't utilize the tight end in the passing game, right? I wouldn't be so sure about that. Ben Watson finished as the No. 10 fantasy receiver as recently as 2006, when he posted a career-high 643 yards. Tom Brady simply stopped looking to Watson after too many dropped passes.

Enter the Gronk. A souped up Todd Heap clone at 6'6", 260 with 4.65 speed, the second-rounder out of Arizona steps into the Pats' vacuum at pass-catching tight end. Brady's late-season swoon highlighted his lack of weapons downfield and in the red zone. If the athletic Gronkowski earns Brady's confidence in training camp, he could finish third in receptions behind Randy Moss and Julian Edelman.

Ben Tate, Texans – Steve Slaton is an offensive asset if used correctly. He's a fantastic receiver and dangerous in the open field, but he's not built to carry a ground game. @GreggRosenthal believes Slaton will still lead the Texans in touches, but that's a dangerous proposition after a serious neck fusion surgery. Though Arian Foster closed out the season in strong fashion, Tate is the more talented early-down runner and the back to own in Houston. In fact, NFL Network's Michael Lombardi predicts the second-rounder will pick up 1,500 yards in Gary Kubiak's offense as the Rookie of the Year.

Montario Hardesty, Browns – We http://blogs.rotoworld.com/Fantasy_Football/2010/02/will_harrison_carry_the_load.php warned Jerome Harrison owners to sell high after his furious finish last winter. The Browns traded up in the second round to grab power back Hardesty, which means he'll be given every opportunity to at least form a committee attack with Harrison. GM Tom Heckert considers Hardesty a "potential feature back," so Harrison could be relegated to the third-down role by the end of the season.

Brandon LaFell, Panthers – LaFell succumbed to Matt Leinart syndrome, staying in college one year too long. Considered by many the No. 1 returning senior receiver in the nation entering last year, LaFell dropped throughout the season due to mediocre speed and inconsistent hands. In addition to ideal size (6'3", 201), he does come from a pro-style scheme, is a willing blocker, and shows up big in the red zone. Most importantly, the starting job opposite Steve Smith is wide open, with only slow-footed draft bust Dwayne Jarrett standing in the way.


USA Today
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Draft Wrap: Rookie Losers
This is the second of two articles covering the fantasy winners and losers among the rookies selected in the 2010 draft. For the "Rookie Winners" article, see here.

C.J. Spiller, Bills – While fellow first-round backs Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best landed in situations ready made for fantasy success, the No. 9 overall pick was banished to the NFL's version of Siberia. Forget the anonymity and lake effect snow, Spiller enters an offense flush with established running backs yet lacking in NFL caliber quarterbacks and offensive tackles. Presumed starter Trent Edwards was benched for noodle-armed Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gave way to former Packers draft bust Brian Brohm late in the season. The three of them will stage a "competition," with the winner dragging down the rest of the offense behind swinging gates Cornell Green and Demetrius Bell at tackle.

Coach Chan Gailey envisions Spiller as a hybrid weapon in the mold of Reggie Bush. Spiller (like Bush) refuses to run between the tackles, so he's best used out wide and on pitches and misdirections. Fred Jackson will continue to receive much of the early-down work, so Spiller's workload could be heavily dependent on game momentum. Whether he's truly a difference-making talent or not, the situation in Buffalo is a fantasy killer.

Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - Carson Palmer finally has a stud pass-catching tight end. Unfortunately, it's about four years too late. If the late-season version of Palmer shows up again in 2010, the Bengals will be saddled with a passer lacking in accuracy and arm strength.

Even if Palmer's right arm improves, Gresham will have to convince offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski that a tight end is more than just a sixth lineman. The Bratkowski/Marvin Lewis Bengals have never utilized the tight end as a significant part of passing attack. In Cincy's new run-heavy offense, Gresham will be worked in situationally on passing downs and in the red zone. It's not a recipe for fantasy success in year one.

Dexter McCluster, Chiefs - The Ole Miss running back can forget about picking up a steady does of carries in Kansas City. Already set in the backfield with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, the Chiefs announced McCluster as a wide receiver. From early indications, coach Todd Haley plans to use him out of the slot, with Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers on the outside. As the fourth option in the offense, the second-rounder is a player to bypass in fantasy drafts this year.

Toby Gerhart, Vikings – The Heisman Trophy runner-up could have ended up as the power half of a committee attack in Seattle, Houston, or Cleveland. Instead, he'll spend his rookie season picking up splinters behind Adrian Peterson. Gerhart isn't as advanced as Peterson in pass protection or receiving, so we can rule out third-down duties as well. The second-rounder is nothing more than a handcuff in fantasy leagues.

Jimmy Clausen, Pathers – For all we know, Clausen's attitude and leadership "issues" may be mythical. He was a first-rounder based on talent alone, and conventional wisdom holds that he landed in a spot chock full of opportunity. Not so fast. The Panthers cut franchise icon Jake Delhomme, assigned a first- and third-round tender to Matt Moore, and named Moore the starting quarterback as early as March. Does the addition of Clausen change things? Sure, but probably not for 2010. After finishing up last season 4-1 with a passer rating near 100, Moore is the heavy favorite to hold off Clausen for the starting job in Week 1.

Colt McCoy, Browns – Even with washed-up Delhomme penciled in under center, McCoy has zero chance of opening the season as the Browns' starting quarterback. Team president Mike Holmgren announced Saturday that the third-rounder simply isn't ready to take the reins, and he'll spend his rookie season holding a clipboard. The Longhorn is a long-term project for Holmgren.

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Joe McKnight, Jets – Convinced that Leon Washington would never recapture his pre-injury form, the Jets traded up to draft his replacement in the fourth round. Sharing many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Washington, McKnight is ticketed for a third-down role behind Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson. As talented as Washington was, he was never able to take that role and make it truly valuable in fantasy terms.

Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers – One of the most decorated backs in college football the past two seasons, the former Yellow Jacket sunk like a stone the past two months due to undisclosed medical reasons. The Steelers obviously believe the "risk" is worth taking, even if Dwyer slipped all the way to the sixth round. Though Dwyer is a pure power back drawing comparisons to Jerome Bettis, he'll take a backseat to Rashard Mendenhall for the foreseeable future. Like Toby Gerhart, his fantasy value would have been better served in Seattle, Houston, or Cleveland.

Anthony Dixon, 49ers – Dwyer wasn't the only big back falling to the sixth round. Dixon, the Mississippi State bull-dozer, joined him in a free fall over the weekend. Though Dixon has drawn comparisons to the Jets' Shonn Greene, his foot speed just doesn't match up. Niners coordinator Jimmy Raye envisions Dixon as a fourth-quarter "closer" spelling Frank Gore. I wouldn't take that to the bank. Raye planned to use Glen Coffee in the same role last year, but Gore was simply too good to take off the field.

Dorin Dickerson, Texans – A prototypical tweener, not big enough for tight end and too talented for a niche role as H-back, Dickerson fell into Houston's lap in the seventh round. Coach Gary Kubiak plans to convert Dickerson into a receiver, so the former Pitt tight end will shadow Andre Johnson around training camp to learn the nuances of the position. Dickerson is talented enough to pull off the transition, but he'll be lucky to see the field as a rookie.

[SIZE=+1]Reserving Judgment[/SIZE]

The following players won't have a fantasy impact as rookies, but they're worth keeping an eye on in long-term leagues.

Tim Tebow, Broncos - It's become almost as trendy to bash Tebow's NFL chances and cry "overhyped" as it is to bitterly attack Brett Favre and cry "played out." With a player as unique as Tebow, however, my mind is wide open. While the cottage industry draftniks have unanimously decided that Tebow will never make it on this level as a passer, there are plenty of coaches, scouts, and executives actually involved with the game that believe the greatest Gator of all time has far more than fighting chance. If he does make it as a quarterback, Tebow's skill-set lends him plenty of fantasy upside.

Jimmy Graham, Saints - The former Hurricanes basketball player landed in an ideal spot. Still learning how to block after playing just one year of football at Miami, Graham was never a great bet for rookie playing time. He'll sit behind Jeremy Shockey this year, but his off-the-charts measurables give him plenty of upside as a potential poor man's Tony Gonzalez.

Damian Williams, Titans - GM Mike Reinfeldt believes the former Trojan has a chance to end up as the Titans' No. 1 receiver. I wouldn't put the third-rounder's upside over Kenny Britt's, but the two could be starting together as soon as 2011. In the meantime, Williams will give Jeff Fisher a major upgrade on punt returns.

Charles Scott, Eagles - A power back from LSU, Scott plummeted to the fifth round after he failed his Senior Bowl physical due to a collarbone fracture in November. With Mike Bell signed through 2010, Scott has a year to rest up before potentially usurping short-yardage and red-zone duties next season.

Mardy Gilyard, Rams - Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has an interesting group of young wild-card receivers in St. Louis. Laurent Robinson flashed No. 1 receiver potential before suffering yet another injury early last season. Speedster Donnie Avery is putting on weight this year in an attempt to stave off his own nagging injuries, and Brandon Gibson emerged as a legit option late in the year. Into the mix walks the first pick of the fourth round, a dynamite returner and playmaker out of Cincinnati. Gilyard will be a weapon on returns right off the bat, and he could climb the depth chart all the way to the top within a couple of years.
 

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